Nearing Bottom? Litecoin Prices Consolidating After Rough September

Litecoin's price has had a hard time in the fallout of China's initial coin offering (ICO) ban.

While both bitcoin and litecoin took a hit after the early September statement from Chinese regulators – followed by domestic cryptocurrency exchanges voluntarily ceasing to offer services in the aftermath – bitcoin quickly recovered and neared record highs against the US dollar this week.

As litecoin support struggled, bitcoin seems to have benefitted from the rotation out of ether and ethereum-based tokens, triggered by fears of China-like ICO restrictions in other jurisdictions.

Against the U.S. dollar, litecoin is now down by more than $40 from its record high of $98.28, achieved on September 1. Further, the litecoin-bitcoin (LTC/BTC) exchange rate fell from 0.019 BTC (September 2 high) to 0.0098 BTC this week.

At press time, LTC/BTC is trading at 0.0105 BTC – down 0.9 percent on the day. Week-over-week, the pair is down 13.22 percent, while on a monthly basis, it is nursing a 34 percent loss.

However, price action analysis suggests that the LTC/BTC pair could be nearing a bottom.

4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart shows that:

• The relative strength index (RSI) is rising from the oversold region.
• The falling trend line is seen offering resistance at 0.0115 BTC.

Daily chart: RSI oversold

Weekly chart

The weekly chart shows that:

• Prices are currently hovering around the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of 0.01025 BTC, which acted as a strong support mechanism in May, June and August.
• Trading volumes have dropped significantly during the recent sell-off.
• The upward sloping 50-day moving average is seen offering support at 0.0098 BTC.

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• The oversold conditions on the daily and 4-hour chart – which come at a time when prices are hovering around the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support level – indicates the LTC/BTC pair could be nearing a bottom.
• The dips below 0.01025 BTC (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) are likely to be short-lived.
• The pair is more likely to rally to 0.012 and 0.0135 (200-day moving average) levels in the short run.